Donald Trump’s election victory marks the greatest political comeback in modern history. The last successful attempt to come back from a re-election loss was Grover Cleveland, who was denied re-election in 1888 before rebounding in 1892.
Ever since, several formidable political figures have waged spectacular comebacks: Robert Menzies and John Howard (Australia); Winston Churchill (Britain); Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton (US); Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel); Shinzo Abe (Japan); and Mahathir Mohamad (Malaysia) all rate high marks for sheer animal survival. As resilient as these comeback fighters were, though, none compares to Trump.
When Trump left office in disgrace in January 2021, his approval rating was 34 per cent, according to Gallop, and like all defeated presidents since Cleveland he was ripe only for the history books.
After all, he had refused to accept defeat to Joe Biden and appallingly tried to overturn that election. He faced several criminal indictments. And his hand-picked Republican House and Senate candidates were roundly defeated in the 2022 midterm congressional elections. Conservative pundits like Tucker Carlson had turned their back on him.
Trump’s entry into the presidential contest in November 2022 drew dismissive headlines, such as “Florida man makes announcement” on page 26 of Rupert Murdoch’s tabloid New York Post. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis’ 19-point re-election victory as Florida governor that same month saw front-page coverage calling him “DeFuture.”
How to account for Trump’s astonishing comeback? How did this rude, crude, lewd buffoon defy the odds and bounce back from the depths of despair, including an assassination attempt?
For one thing, Trump had plenty of help from his opponents. Their unprecedented campaign of criminal and civil litigation reaffirmed the conservative belief that Trump is a victim of a “corrupt” system (Trump even turned his mug shot into a marketing tool).
Democrats and their media mates went to great lengths to cover up Joe Biden’s evident flaws, and when the truth about his health was finally exposed, they thought they could simply swap him for a substance-free candidate who hadn’t been tested by primary competition.
At the same time, Democrats wilfully misinterpreted their small majority in 2020 as a mandate for economic statism and left-wing progressivism. As a result, the chaos of a dysfunctional immigration system spilled into neighbourhoods. Crime shut down cities where officials refused to enforce laws and the homeless invaded public spaces.
Bidenomics – massive post-COVID spending splurges – wasted tax dollars and led to a surge in inflation that shrank real wages. A clear majority of Americans say they’re worse off today than they were four years earlier.
But Trump’s populist message has also had wide appeal in ways that media elites and urban sophisticates have never really understood. Sure, many people harbour deep reservations about Trump. But for all his vulgarity, he has tapped into the legitimate anxieties of many low-income Americans without college degrees, who feel unrepresented.
Indeed, this is largely due to the Democrats having lost their working-class base over the years through their support for globalisation, identity politics and lax immigration controls.
This election, moreover, is indicative of a cultural clash that the veteran US political analyst John B. Judis has identified. It’s not just the gender gap that has widened in this election, but a great divide between the people who live in the great metro centres like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area – which have benefited from the rise of finance and high tech – and the mid-sized and small towns that have been decimated by the flight of industry or that depend upon resource extraction, be it farming, mining or oil drilling.
In other words, the Democrats have become the party of the big metro centres and the Republicans the party of small-town America.
So, what now? What to make of the next four years?
It would be pleasant to think everybody would now close ranks and get on with the business of governing America and addressing the country’s urgent problems. The sad thing about this dispiriting election campaign, however, is that it hasn’t clarified America’s problems, but deepened them.
This was an immoderate campaign, coarse in its tone and unedifying in its substance. And America’s politics are likely to stay that way for the next four years and beyond.
As for US trade policy, higher and across-the-board tariffs will likely slow global growth and hurt US consumers with higher prices. A trade war with China is not in Australia’s national interest.
And US foreign policy? Trump is unpredictable, but at least he recognises the folly of the “forever wars” that the neoconservatives and liberal hawks launched in the Middle East. He has also recognised the perils of antagonising the Kremlin with NATO expansion, which has provoked Putin into protecting Russia’s near abroad, as well as pushed Moscow closer to arch-enemy China.
With the return of power politics in a more multipolar world, the US must now recognise its limits and reorder its strategic priorities away from Europe and the Middle East towards Asia to check and balance China, the only power capable of threatening the US. Is Trump up to the task?
- Tom Switzer, Executive Director of the Centre for Independent Studies
Did you see our latest interview with Ruchir Sharma?
Ruchir Sharma is an author, fund manager and columnist for the Financial Times. He is the head of Rockefeller Capital Management's international business, and was an emerging markets investor at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Let us know in the comments below; has capitalism failed?
Most people see through the facade. Corporations are getting involved in good causes because they care; they are getting involved for profit and their public image.
We surveyed people to find out what they think about corporations getting involved in politics and we found that most people don't care or don't like it.
Watch the video or read the paper for all the details.
We surveyed 2,500 Australians about corporations getting involved in political and social advocacy. We found that 72% of respondents think businesses should stick to providing good service to customers and high returns to shareholders and stay out of the public discourse -- particularly on controversial and politically charged issues.
CIS promotes free choice, individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. CIS encourages debate among leading academics, politicians, media and the public. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper.
We hope you'll join us in the ongoing fight for freedom.
Centre for Independent Studies
Centre for Independent Studies
Donald Trump’s election victory marks the greatest political comeback in modern history. The last successful attempt to come back from a re-election loss was Grover Cleveland, who was denied re-election in 1888 before rebounding in 1892.
Ever since, several formidable political figures have waged spectacular comebacks: Robert Menzies and John Howard (Australia); Winston Churchill (Britain); Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton (US); Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel); Shinzo Abe (Japan); and Mahathir Mohamad (Malaysia) all rate high marks for sheer animal survival. As resilient as these comeback fighters were, though, none compares to Trump.
When Trump left office in disgrace in January 2021, his approval rating was 34 per cent, according to Gallop, and like all defeated presidents since Cleveland he was ripe only for the history books.
After all, he had refused to accept defeat to Joe Biden and appallingly tried to overturn that election. He faced several criminal indictments. And his hand-picked Republican House and Senate candidates were roundly defeated in the 2022 midterm congressional elections. Conservative pundits like Tucker Carlson had turned their back on him.
Trump’s entry into the presidential contest in November 2022 drew dismissive headlines, such as “Florida man makes announcement” on page 26 of Rupert Murdoch’s tabloid New York Post. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis’ 19-point re-election victory as Florida governor that same month saw front-page coverage calling him “DeFuture.”
How to account for Trump’s astonishing comeback? How did this rude, crude, lewd buffoon defy the odds and bounce back from the depths of despair, including an assassination attempt?
For one thing, Trump had plenty of help from his opponents. Their unprecedented campaign of criminal and civil litigation reaffirmed the conservative belief that Trump is a victim of a “corrupt” system (Trump even turned his mug shot into a marketing tool).
Democrats and their media mates went to great lengths to cover up Joe Biden’s evident flaws, and when the truth about his health was finally exposed, they thought they could simply swap him for a substance-free candidate who hadn’t been tested by primary competition.
At the same time, Democrats wilfully misinterpreted their small majority in 2020 as a mandate for economic statism and left-wing progressivism. As a result, the chaos of a dysfunctional immigration system spilled into neighbourhoods. Crime shut down cities where officials refused to enforce laws and the homeless invaded public spaces.
Bidenomics – massive post-COVID spending splurges – wasted tax dollars and led to a surge in inflation that shrank real wages. A clear majority of Americans say they’re worse off today than they were four years earlier.
But Trump’s populist message has also had wide appeal in ways that media elites and urban sophisticates have never really understood. Sure, many people harbour deep reservations about Trump. But for all his vulgarity, he has tapped into the legitimate anxieties of many low-income Americans without college degrees, who feel unrepresented.
Indeed, this is largely due to the Democrats having lost their working-class base over the years through their support for globalisation, identity politics and lax immigration controls.
This election, moreover, is indicative of a cultural clash that the veteran US political analyst John B. Judis has identified. It’s not just the gender gap that has widened in this election, but a great divide between the people who live in the great metro centres like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area – which have benefited from the rise of finance and high tech – and the mid-sized and small towns that have been decimated by the flight of industry or that depend upon resource extraction, be it farming, mining or oil drilling.
In other words, the Democrats have become the party of the big metro centres and the Republicans the party of small-town America.
So, what now? What to make of the next four years?
It would be pleasant to think everybody would now close ranks and get on with the business of governing America and addressing the country’s urgent problems. The sad thing about this dispiriting election campaign, however, is that it hasn’t clarified America’s problems, but deepened them.
This was an immoderate campaign, coarse in its tone and unedifying in its substance. And America’s politics are likely to stay that way for the next four years and beyond.
As for US trade policy, higher and across-the-board tariffs will likely slow global growth and hurt US consumers with higher prices. A trade war with China is not in Australia’s national interest.
And US foreign policy? Trump is unpredictable, but at least he recognises the folly of the “forever wars” that the neoconservatives and liberal hawks launched in the Middle East. He has also recognised the perils of antagonising the Kremlin with NATO expansion, which has provoked Putin into protecting Russia’s near abroad, as well as pushed Moscow closer to arch-enemy China.
With the return of power politics in a more multipolar world, the US must now recognise its limits and reorder its strategic priorities away from Europe and the Middle East towards Asia to check and balance China, the only power capable of threatening the US. Is Trump up to the task?
- Tom Switzer, Executive Director of the Centre for Independent Studies
2 months ago | [YT] | 16
View 3 replies
Centre for Independent Studies
Did you see our latest interview with Ruchir Sharma?
Ruchir Sharma is an author, fund manager and columnist for the Financial Times. He is the head of Rockefeller Capital Management's international business, and was an emerging markets investor at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Let us know in the comments below; has capitalism failed?
4 months ago | [YT] | 7
View 5 replies
Centre for Independent Studies
CIS Research Director Simon Cowan explains the RBA's decision to keep rates the same.
5 months ago | [YT] | 11
View 0 replies
Centre for Independent Studies
Most people see through the facade. Corporations are getting involved in good causes because they care; they are getting involved for profit and their public image.
We surveyed people to find out what they think about corporations getting involved in politics and we found that most people don't care or don't like it.
Watch the video or read the paper for all the details.
www.cis.org.au/publication/business-means-business…
5 months ago | [YT] | 7
View 1 reply
Centre for Independent Studies
Which generation is LEAST likely to say businesses get involved in political and social causes because they actually care about the issues?
6 months ago | [YT] | 9
View 8 replies
Centre for Independent Studies
We surveyed 2,500 Australians about corporations getting involved in political and social advocacy. We found that 72% of respondents think businesses should stick to providing good service to customers and high returns to shareholders and stay out of the public discourse -- particularly on controversial and politically charged issues.
What the video to learn more.
6 months ago | [YT] | 9
View 1 reply
Centre for Independent Studies
CIS promotes free choice, individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. CIS encourages debate among leading academics, politicians, media and the public. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper.
We hope you'll join us in the ongoing fight for freedom.
#auspol
7 months ago | [YT] | 10
View 0 replies
Centre for Independent Studies
Energy Minister Chris Bowen loves going on and on about how much cheaper renewables than nuclear energy. But where does Minister Bowen get this from?
#auspol #nuclear #vicpol
11 months ago | [YT] | 6
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Centre for Independent Studies
What should we do about climate change?
‪@CISAus‬
11 months ago | [YT] | 6
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Centre for Independent Studies
Australia Day is under attack!
11 months ago | [YT] | 3
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